The Doha Agreement is not capable of shoring up the nation

Friday, May 22 2009

The country is witnessing a dangerous escalation of political speeches. Although we may have expected this, we realise that the political slogans are merely a tool to hunt down voters and push them towards confessionalism. These speeches are futile given that the outcome is already known and therefore does not warrant such measures

We at the National Dialogue Party took the decision not to participate in the upcoming elections. We have decided not to run in the elections and not to vote because we believe that the adoption of the 1960 electoral law and the resulting district divisions predetermines the winners, especially in Beirut. In particular, the Sunni vote has been monopolized by one party. This is basically what was decided in Doha and is an integral part of the agreement reached between the government and the opposition following the two landmark decisions concerning the Hezbullah communication network and the ensuing dismissal of the airport security chief, Wafik Choucair. These two decisions were the catalyst that exploded the situation and ended in the parties going to Doha and reaching a settlement concerning the elections

The question now is what the two sides will agree or disagree upon following the elections. It is safe to say that what is currently taking place is a sample of what the situation will be like post-elections. Furthermore, it is safe to assume that the situation will be no different to that of the past four years. In other words, at the head of the list of hot topics will be the defense strategy and the weapons of the resistance. In short, we will be back to the same scenario that culminated in the events of May 7. This raises the question of what the Doha Agreement offered the Lebanese other than cancelling the concept of democratic elections. Also, should the same political outfit return to power, there will also be a return to confessional divisions that may disintegrate into civil war. Here we must reiterate our view that although the Doha agreement brought about some positive aspects, namely the election of a President as well as an end to civil unrest, it also allowed a division of the pie and of parliamentary seats

Do the two sides not realize that the whole region is on the cusp of confessional conflict? What if the Doha agreement planted a seed that will blossom into additional conflict along confessional lines especially between the Sunnis and the Shiites? The more important question is will there always be support for a national cause? All those who participated in the Doha agreement participated in the monopolization of power in the hands of a select few and created litigious groups; therefore we can expect a recurrence of the events of May 7

We are all intelligent enough to realize that the current parliamentary majority tried hard to internationalize the crisis in Lebanon in order to disarm Hezbollah, impose new rules of engagement and change the mission of UNIFIL to return to the situation prior to UN Resolution 1701. We also all remember the statement made by John Bolton (US Ambassador to the UN at that time) that “the Lebanese and Israeli governments agreed on all the items during my discussions with them

The political parties that are concerned about the magnitude of the socio-economic problems realize that the political power that emerges from the elections will face a real crisis of governance. The crisis may also materialize as confrontations and disagreements over the cabinet, as well as the inability to fulfill campaign promises. In addition to this, Lebanon is unable to address and meet external interests. Moreover, United States policy is based on two priorities: oil and Israel. Although we have witnessed a mild change in American policy, these changes have been limited to style and approach and have not touched upon the essence. Betting on a change in the Obama administration is also a gamble. Senior American strategists have not ruled out a strike on Iran. It is also established that the push to reach an agreement between Israel and the Palestinians stems not from a wish to give the Palestinians a state, but rather from a need to create a solid line against Iran. This is clear from both Obama's and Netanyahu’s speeches that are very clear on their position regarding Iran, but vague on the issues of settlements and the possibility of a two state solution

Last, but by no means least, we call on all parties that have been in power over the past four years to show some humility during the upcoming elections. We all know that the democratic process has been suppressed and that the current speeches are mere 'noise'. The Doha Agreement may have put an end to civil strife but it did not resolve the burning issues