Lebanon is ill and not just indisposed

Friday, Oct 2 2009

The partial and unilateral solutions being proposed will not produce a real peace and unfair solutions will not last. This was the message from Lebanon as represented by President Suleiman in front of the United Nations General Assembly's 64th meeting.

In his speech, President Suleiman sent a message to the world, and indeed a message to the Arab world and Lebanon specifically, warning against partial solutions as dangerous for the country. What happened last week in Washington in conjunction with the UN General Assembly meeting in New York, that is the meeting between American president Barack Obama, Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, does not suggest any confidence in the solutions being heavily discussed internationally and particularly in Washington. Obama dropped a condition of the meeting which was to freeze the building of settlements, while President Abbas also had to drop the requirement to meet Netanyahu lest he be accused of not being a partner to discussions. Thus, Netanyahu succeeded in breaking the two men's condition for the meeting, while not submitting the required stepping down of halting settlement building. How can a sane person see anything positive in this for the peace process and how can it bode well for Lebanon? Netanyahu was confident that no pressure could stop him from continuing the settlement process across the West Bank (which Obama is asking to be frozen at least temporarily) and no pressure was brought to bear to stop the massacres and construction of settlements currently taking place in Jerusalem! What is the fate of the pressure to end the occupation and to assure the right of return for the Palestinians to their homes or even the return to the negotiating table? What remains of the two-state solution if Netanyahu's conditions are based on his famous speech in Bar Ilan during which he agreed to a two-state solution based on a demilitarized state without sovereignty over its air space, without the right of return, without Jerusalem and in return for recognising Israel as a Jewish state and announcing an end to the conflict and the end of Palestinian demands!

What kind of a Palestinian state can be ignored by the international community currently represented by the Quartet or the UN Security Council and Washington with all its essential issues such as those related to borders, holy sites, refugees and settlers, with the US suggestion of the two-state solution coming in the context of American priorities? Washington has discovered that the separation which existed during the mandate of the previous president, George W. Bush, between the crisis in the Middle East and the course of the negotiations on the one hand, and between their policies on hot issues such as the 'War on Terror', the Iranian nuclear issue, the future of its position in Iraq, the renewed war in Afghanistan and the new one in Pakistan on the other hand, is unrealistic and impossible. And so, the mission of the American envoy to the Middle East, George Mitchell, failed to convince the Israeli side to resume dealing with the issue of negotiations along the Palestinian line, and perhaps also the Syrian line, both of which were brought down by Netanyahu at the UN. The way needs to be opened for a just and comprehensive peace on the basis of the Madrid terms and with all the international resolutions related to this including the approval of the right of return for the refugees and the total withdrawal from the West Bank, East Jerusalem, the Golan Heights and what is left of Lebanese land under occupation.

The region is in need of an American initiative to solve the crisis in the Middle East which will focus on the Madrid terms, the principle of land for peace and UN resolutions 242 and 338. Any movement by the Obama administration will not serve its purpose if it does not learn from the failures of the previous administrations in playing the role of honest broker in bringing pressures to bear on the Israeli government, any Israeli government. Indeed, President Suleiman issued a warning in this context. Partial and unilateral solutions will not bring about real peace and solutions which are unfair and imbalanced will not last; this will be a recipe for disaster and will lead to further collapse of the situation worse than any scenarios envisaged for the region.

Thus, we turn to the Arab countries and state that if the Palestinian issue, which is the central issue, is facing the collapse of its peace process, or an unfair solution on the basis of what Netanyahu is proposing and with his conditions, then the Arab states need to deal with these issues. Proof of Netanyahu's attempts to impose a new reality on the ground are the recent Israeli attacks on the Aqsa mosque and its congregation, the violation of the sanctity of the Haram al-Sharif, the endangering of the Aqsa mosque by systematic operations of destruction both from underneath the mosque and from above it, and the destruction of homes and ethnic cleansing taking place in the old city of Jerusalam. This renewed and hateful aggression should constitute a warning to the international community that prolonged silence in the face of Israeli actions and acts of terrorism will kill any remaining hope on the part of the Arab and Islamic people for the possibility of a just peace in the region. The Arab countries need to be aware of and realize the dangers of accepting the existence of the state of Israel as a Jewish state according to the conditions laid down by Netanyahu. This acceptance will mean the end of the rights of the Palestinians in their land and the opening of the door in front of a renewed displacement of the Palestinian people as happened in 1948, and the people of Jerusalem in particular.

The Palestinian issue is the basis of all the problems afflicting the Arab world and the solution lies in upholding the rights of all the Arab issues. Arab solidarity is required instead of inter-Arab conflict, because any plan to change the current balance is bad news for the Arabs as a whole. This is particularly the case following the success of the resistance in Lebanon in repelling the attack, the Israeli failure in invading the besieged Gaza strip and bringing the Palestinians to their knees, the embarrassment of the American position in Iraq which has made Washington work on setting a date to the Iraqis to leave by 2011, the drowning in the muds of Afghanistan and Pakistan, the confusion in dealing with the Iranian nuclear issue (Netanyahu is pushing for war on Iran) and the failure to ignite sectarian strife in Lebanon so far, as well as various other issues. If the Arabs do not hold on to these gains, this will only serve to provide immediate security for Israel whose openly right-wing government is rejecting the minimum requirement which is the freezing of settlements in the West Bank for a few months. It seems clear that its real aim is to kill any chance of settlement with the Palestinians. And so how can there be a fair settlement which includes the various Arab issues on the basis of the relevant international resolutions?

It must be pointed out here that the acceptance of the invitation extended to Syrian president Bashar al-Assad by King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz to participate in the inauguration of the King Abdullah University of Sciences in Saudi Arabia reveals Damascus renewed prioritization to a policy of Arab solidarity and to opening dialogue with Washington. This is also revealing of its strategic relationship with Tehran where it continues to work on Iranian-Arabian Gulf dialogue to allay the Gulf states' fears about Iran and with the guarantee of Syria. Is there hope for a breakthrough here in revitalizing the inter-Arab consultations and concerted Arab work to address the requirements of this dangerous phase which is affecting all the Arab countries?

As for us in Lebanon, the major issues are numerous and thorny for any government which comes to power as of now. For this difficult task, all the fears and misgivings need to be addressed, ranging from the international tribunal, its potential politicization and the possibility of using it as leverage to exert pressure in the game of nations or to secure particular narrow interests, to the Israeli threats of attacking Lebanon in its entirety. Added to this, are the issues of the Palestinian weapons both inside and outside the camps, the issue of the right of return, and the real fears about the likelihood of naturalizing the Palestinian refugees in light of the above mentioned situation regarding the dangerous Israeli proposals. There are also various other issues on the dialogue table nationally, before the recent parliamentary elections and after the Doha agreement which brought forth new challenges, all of which need to be addressed by a national unity government or a coalition government and which need to be stated clearly in its ministerial statement.

And what of the neglected economic issues which have been abandoned for so long, particularly the increase of the public debt. The government has been left floundering while its designated leader goes from consultations to holidays. This was followed by failure and subsequent apology. This has resulted in the country remaining a pawn in the time-wasting game which Saad Hariri seems to be playing in the knowledge that there is no constitutional bar on ending the time-wasting and as long as the waiting is, in the eyes of the 'majority', the shortest way to ensure its own interests exclusively!

In conclusion, Lebanon is ill and not simply indisposed. Some of the political layer still consider that they have more time to achieve their aspirations or interests even if it is at the expense of Lebanon and from the pockets of its people. Meanwhile, the region is witnessing unexpected events. The only possible cure is the establishment of a coalition government which will not allow any compromise for any side to decide the fate of Lebanon in the game of nations at the expense of its sovereignty, freedom and independence, and thus at the expense of its security and civil peace.